Florida at Kentucky: Kentucky Cover -5.5
This one should be a barn burner. With the total at 170.5, the oddsmakers are predicting a scoring affair.
Looking at the numbers, the Gators put up the 2nd most shots per game in the nation; however, they are 125th in FG% and 221st in 3PT%.
Conversely, the Wildcats average the 7th most shots per game in the nation, our 16th in FG% and 3rd in 3PT%. Advantage, Wildcats.
On top of this, Kentucky is 4th in points per game, and the Florida defense is 306th.
The ATS trends do not help the Gators either; they are 2-8 in their last ten road games and 0-5 in their previous five at Kentucky. Again, flip that around. The Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
The spread is a little too low for me, and I feel comfortable giving Kentucky the -5.5, which could easily be a 10-point victory against a lousy road team.
Result: Florida Cover +10.5 ❌
