Purdue at Rutgers: Purdue Cover by -10
A lot of the chatter on this game is Purdue’s record against Rutgers, specifically at Jersey Mike’s Arena, where they have lost the last 3 to the Scarlett Knights. They also lost last year at home to Rutgers 65-64 before a narrow win in the BIG10 tournament 70-65. So, yes, they have struggled against Rutgers in recent years (1-8-1 ATS in the last 10, OUCH), but college basketball changes drastically yearly. This Purdue team is different than a year ago; this Rutgers team is different than a year ago.
THIS YEAR, Purdue scores almost 20 points per game more than Rutgers, with the Scarlett Knights’ offense ranked 311th in the nation in points scored. The key here is the rebounding differential. Rutgers ranks 350th in defensive rebounds but 37th in offensive rebounds. That’s a crazy statistic. Purdue ranks 6th and 35th, respectively. Yes, Rutgers has a scrappy defense that can annoy an offense, but this Purdue team is too good this year, and since their loss to Nebraska, they have won by double-digit points in four straight, all against better teams.
Roll with the Boilermakers to control the glass and tempo, secure a double-point win, and turn their luck against Rutgers around.
Result: Rutgers Cover by +2.5 ❌
