Denver at Oklahoma City: Thunder Cover -1.5
Denver may have had two substantial back-to-back wins over the Bucks and the 76ers at home, but they are in a tough spot tonight. Overall, they are 7-3 in their last ten but 3-6-1 ATS. The Thunder are coming off two losses to the Timberwolves and lowly Detroit (ouch). However, that was coming off a five-game-winning streak where they went 4-1 ATS. Overall, the Thunder are 16-7 ATS at home this year, while the Nuggets are 8-16-1 ATS on the road.
But, the biggest news is that Nikola Jokić is now questionable with back pains. Even with the Joker in the lineup, I like this line, but I enjoy it even more with the announcement of the injury. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was questionable with an illness for Oklahoma City, but he did participate in today’s shoot-around. I expect him to play. However, Chet Holmgren is dealing with an ankle injury and most likely will sit tonight.
The Thunder are good at home, 4th in points, 3rd in FG%, and 2nd in FT%, which means the Denver defense is middle of the pack. Overall, the Nuggets home/away splits are alarming. We are talking 10 points per game less and lower in all significant statistics available by a decent margin.
Given Jokić’s back pains and the trends, the Thunder should be OK covering this line on paper.
Result: Thunder Cover -3.5 ✅
