The last weekend of September holds the Matchweek 6 fixtures in the Premier League. There are some riveting games spanning the Saturday-Monday three-day run. We’re back with a betting preview featuring our favorite bets on each of the 10 games. From Newcastle hosting Man City to Chelsea and Brighton all the way to Man U and Tottenham. All of them are covered in the Matchweek 6 Betting Preview with bets bets for Premier League games.
Each of the bets below are staked at $10 unless otherwise noted.
Newcastle – Manchester City
Bet(s): Newcastle to win (+425); Over 3.5 Goals (+120); Erling Haaland Anytime Goal (-120); Alexander Isak Anytime Goal (+220)
We’re starting off with a load betting slip for the first game of the weekend. The Haaland and Isak goal bets should be relatively self-explanatory as they’re the top goal scorers for their sides and have combined for more than 3 xG in their 3 appearances versus each others’ team. In addition to that Man City have scored at least 2 goals in 14 straight league games and Newcastle have scored in 17 straight home games. As far as the total and winner bets, let’s dive in a bit. Rodri is out for Man City, they played the last match of Matchweek 5 and had a midweek EFL Cup game, and are now the first game of Matchweek 6. That’s tired legs without a hugely important piece on the field for them. Man City have lost 33.3% of the games Rodri has missed in his PL career and Newcastle is tough at home. On top of that these two have had 4-of-10 games this season top the 3.5 goal mark and that was before Rodri was injured who helps keep opponents off the board with his ability in possession. Newcastle is hoping to rebound from a bad week last week and catch Man City a bit tired in a tough atmosphere.
Nottingham Forest – Fulham
Bet(s): Matt Selz Draw of the Week (+240); Chris Wood Anytime Goal (+230)
Both teams are coming off of big showings last week. Fulham had arguably the biggest win of the week with a 3-1 win over Newcastle and Forest battled for a draw down a man at Brighton. Forest have already drawn thrice in five games with Fulham doing it twice in five. With Morgan Gibbs-White out for Forest, the offense might not be as fluid and Fulham struggle away from home, being way more likely to draw away from Craven Cottage. All of that leans toward a draw in this one with Chris Wood getting likely the lone goal for Forest as he’s averaging 1.6 SOT per game this year. We can also sprinkle a bit on the under 2.5 total at -118 as that’s hit in 9 of the last 12 combined games for the two teams this season in all competitions.
Chelsea – Brighton
Bet(s): Over 3.5 Goals (+140); Nicolas Jackson Anytime Goal (+175)
Over the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams at least 5 goals have tickled the twine in half of them. Brighton have allowed 2 goals each to Wolves and Forest the last 2 games and Chelsea has far more threatening goal scorers than either of those teams. Going with that is that Chelsea’s defense has been weak at times and Brighton has the players to take advantage of that weakness. As for where the goals are coming from, Jackson has been the leading goal scorer for Chelsea this year with the second-best xG output in the Premier League only behind Erling Haaland. Jackson is averaging better than 1.6 SOT a game and he’s been efficient with those shots scoring on half of them.
Brentford – West Ham United
Bet(s): Brentford to win (+125); Brentford to win by 1 goal (+333); SGP at Bet365: Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS (-110)
Recent history has been majorly in the favor of the Bees and goals. Brentford and West Ham have played 6 league games since Brentford joined the PL. Five of those have been Brentford wins. West Ham is still trying to figure things out this year and has struggled against a variety of teams, that doesn’t set up well for facing a team they’ve lost to 83.4% of the time of late. Of the last 12 games in all competitions for the two combined, 7 of them have topped the 2.5 total and both teams have scored (BTTS) in 7 of them as well. Both teams are talented and skilled enough to find the net in this one as they showed with 11 total goals scored in the 2 meetings last year.
Everton – Crystal Palace
Bet(s): Everton to score first (+110); Crystal Palace to Win (+160); Under 2.5 Goals (+100) (half bet); Over 2.5 Goals (-110) (half bet)
We have a bit of a mixed bag in this game. It’s a match that can quite frankly go either way between 2 teams who are struggling mightily to start the 2024 campaign. We’ll take the bets in order. Everton has scored first in the majority of their games this year, and in recent games against Palace. Famously they were up 2-0 twice in a row before conceding 3 straight to lose consecutive matches. Palace for their part have conceded first quite a few games recently too. That being said, Everton has been coughing up leads like it’s their job this year and for their part Palace has enough goal scoring threats to make them dangerous the longer the game goes. Crystal Palace has drawn the last 3 games including a 0-0 showing against Man U, this should be the game to get them off the winless mark given Everton’s lack of defense late. As for the total, 4 of the last 6 games between them have hit the under. However, 7 of the last 12 combined games this year in all competitions, the over has hit. With it practically even money on both sides, why hedge it?
Arsenal – Leicester
Bet(s): Arsenal Clean Sheet (-130); SGP on Bet365: Over 2.5 & No BTTS (+220)
This is a frustration release type game for Arsenal. They’re coming off a frustrating draw at Man City and have been hearing about how they can’t seem to win and draw without wasting time. Guess what? They won’t have to do that versus a relegation-battling Leicester. Arsenal has allowed just 1 goal to everyone not named Man City this season and kept a dominant Tottenham squad off the score sheet. Leicester has had trouble scoring against far worse defensive sides than Arsenal. So we have a matchup between a loaded team looking to take out their frustrations against a team who’s struggled for their results against teams in the bottom-half of the table. We’re looking at an Arsenal 3-0 win.
Wolverhampton – Liverpool
Bet(s): Mo Salah Over .5 Ast (+200); Luis Diaz Anytime Goal (+200); Liverpool Clean Sheet (+150)
Sometimes we come across games that aren’t attractive to bet winners or draws or totals. This is one of those. On paper and in the standings it seems like a large mismatch in favor of Liverpool, so we’ll bet some more prop type bets to add excitement to this watch. Salah has already produced 4 assists in 5 games this year and his favorite target is Luis Diaz who has 5 goals already. So why not pair those bets together? On the other side of the pitch, Liverpool has only allowed a single goal this year, a 1-0 defeat to Forest, and Wolves have looked less than spicy in the scoring department. The fact that we’re getting plus money on a clean sheet is a misprice in my opinion.
Ipswich – Aston Villa
Bet(s): Aston Villa to win (-110); Ollie Watkins Anytime Goal (+155); Jhon Duran Anytime Goal (+225)
Let me get this straight. We have a team in the top-4 facing a winless side and getting near-even-money on the money line bet? Ipswich have been outscored 6-1 versus the top-4 so far this year in just 2 such games. Meanwhile Villa have already scored 10 goals compared to Ipswich’s 8 allowed. The main source of those goals have been Watkins and Duran, despite Duran not even starting a game this year. Those two have combined for nearly as many goals as Ipswich have allowed to everyone.
Manchester United – Tottenham
Bet(s): Tottenham to win (+190); Edward Raus Draw of the Week (+300); Tottenham to win by 1 goal (+410)
The biggest game of the weekend on Sunday features 2 teams still trying to find their footing. As we mentioned on this week’s podcast, Man U’s expected stats show them in the top-4 while Tottenham should be 5th in the table based on those same stats. Tottenham is coming off a great showing a week ago and are dominating possession and shooting stats, though without a ton of goals to show for it. United on the other hand are simply struggling for consistency in possession and threatening the goal. Hence why we’re split on these bets. Spurs won the first game last year 2-0 before drawing the second meeting 2-2. If Tottenham shows up the way they’re capable, it should be a 2-1 or 3-2 win but if they squander their chances again we could see a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
Bournemouth – Southampton
Bet(s): Show Draw of the Week (+340); Under 2.5 Goals (+150)
This Monday Night Football game is perhaps the trickiest to read of the weekend. Southampton’s stats suggest they should be a mid-table side, just like Bournemouth. When looking at their last 12 combined games in all competitions this year they’ve drawn 4 times and thrice combined in 10 PL games. Both of those are more common than the implied odds of this line suggests. The style these two teams play also counter each other well enough that their strengths and weaknesses play off each other. All of that point to this game being a 1-1 draw as they’ve combined for 7 total goals in 10 games this year so far.
