After a wild and sometimes unpredictable Premier League Matchweek 8, we’re ready to get an interesting Matchweek 9 going. The weekend is clearly building up to the marquee Arsenal vs. Liverpool matchup on Sunday, but things do kickoff on Friday. A three-day weekend of Premier League games is hard to turn down, especially for a loaded betting card. We’ll preview our favorite bets for every game of the weekend. It goes along with the weekly Keepin’ It EPL podcast and goes into a bit more detail and stats of the bets.
Just a quick note, we’re not expecting anyone to bet every bet listed in the piece. We’ll give 1-3 a game and you can play the ones you feel the best about. As always only bet what you’re comfortable with and what you can afford to lose.
Now, let’s start diving into our favorite bets for Premier League Matchweek 9!
Leicester vs. Nottingham Forest
Bets: Matt Selz Draw of the Week +350 (score draw line); Under 2.5 Goals -120
It may have been a bit since these teams have played each other in the Premier League but both managers are familiar with the other’s style to be sure. That’s why we’re going with a draw to kick off the week. That, and the lines at the books telling us they think it’s a draw with no real clear favorite in the money lines. Forest’s defense has been smothering this year, but they’ve also struggled to score. Leicester have given nearly as well as they’ve gotten through 8 games. So expect a tight contest that exemplifies why these 2 teams have combined for 7 draws in 16 combined matches.
For their part, the under 2.5 goals has hit in nearly every Forest game this year thanks to their defense. While Leicester is averaging 1.5 goals a game, Forest is only putting in 1 and allowing fewer than that. Math and trends strongly suggest the under to hit in this one.
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
Bets: Aston Villa To Win -110; Ollie Watkins Anytime Goal +140
Not to be a copy-paste from last week but Villa is the better team in this game. I know the last 6 matchups have seen Bournemouth win more often, however, the adrenaline crash for the Cherries this week will come. Villa comes in having beaten Bournemouth 3 of the last 5 times at home and having cruised through another Champions League game. The line might suggest for you to get cute with this pick, but don’t. Take Villa to win and be happy with nearly even money. When Villa wins, it’s usually because Watkins has scored so we’re riding that one more time this week. He’s one of the best goal scorers in the league and Bournemouth’s biggest weakness is dealing with highly skilled players in the box.
Brentford vs. Ipswich
Bets: Brentford To Be Winning at Half +130
Yes, it’s just the one lone bet for this one. It’s pretty simple really, Brentford score quickly and frequently to start games this year. In fact last week was the first time in 5 games they’d failed to score within the first 2 minutes of a game. We’ve seen when Ipswich get down in a game it’s hard for them to come back, at least quickly. Add to that Brentford being a more dynamic team than most and it could spell issues for Ipswich early. We do see Brentford winning but the lines don’t have a ton of value in them so we’ll roll with the Bees being up at the break instead.
Brighton vs. Wolverhampton
Bets: Brighton To Win -170
We didn’t give this line out with confidence on the Keepin’ It EPL podcast for a few reasons but I’ll give it here. Mainly we’re feeling a bit burned by taking a -140 Arsenal last week only to see them lose to Bournemouth for just the second time ever. That being said, scared money don’t make money and so we’ll tentatively jump back on the horse with a bet on a good size favorite. Clearly the numbers are in Brighton’s favor this year as they sit 5th in the table and Wolves are dead last and can’t stop anyone from scoring. However, outside of the second half two games ago, Brighton haven’t looked terribly convincing in their play and Wolves did hold Man City to 2 goals last week and Haaland scoreless.
All of that is to say, if you want action on this game, Brighton to win at -170 is a fine bet, though you could also bet Brighton to win by 1 (+333) or by 2 (+375) if you really feel that Brighton will be on their game at home. We’re simply not all that confident in the value of the bets for this game.
Manchester City vs. Southampton
Bets: Over 1.5 First Half Goal -110; Under 3.5 Goals Total +120
On paper, and in the money lines, this is a mismatch of epic proportions. However, based on current form, it’s closer than it may seem, at least if we get creative. Man City has struggled to score in the last 3 weeks without key members of the midfield playing. That is likely to be the same again this week, especially with a Champions League game on Wednesday.
There is very little chance that Southampton wins but, there’s no value in betting Man City win so instead we’re focusing on the goal totals throughout the game. Against softer opponents, Man City has had a tendency to slack a bit in the first half before roaring back and that is likely to happen this weekend against a Southampton that can shoot. Southampton was up 2-0 at half last week and a few weeks ago Man City went down 1-0 at home before going into half up 3-1. This game feels like it’s either a 2-1 City win or a 3-0 City win. Either way it feels like the goals come early and then trickle off as the game wears on.
Everton vs. Fulham
Bets: Edward Raus Draw of the Week +333 (score draw line); Under 2.5 Goals -111
Rationalizing this as a draw is easy: it’s 2 teams who struggle to score consistently from week to week. Along with that comes the fact that not only do Everton and Fulham have the same records in 4 games in respective Home/Away splits. Lastly, the Toffees have scored 4 times at home this year while the Cottagers have scored 4 times on the road. Gee, that’s a pretty dead even Home/Away split huh? This game just feels like a 0-0 or 1-1 draw after 90’ and in 4 of the last 5 meetings it’s been either 1-1, 0-0, or 1-0. If you like tight games with a bunch of coulda, shoulda, woulda been goals, this is the one for you.
Chelsea vs. Newcastle
Bets: Chelsea To Win -125; Chelsea Win 1st Half +130; Cole Palmer Anytime Goal +120
It’s been a bit of a tough run for Newcastle over the last few weeks having put up just 4 goals in the last 5 games and none in the last 2. For Chelsea’s part, they’ve amassed 10 goals in the last 5 while boasting 2 clean sheets defensively in that span. Sure, when they’ve met in the recent history, it’s been back and forth results, however, this form of Chelsea and Newcastle swings the balance in Chelsea’s favor. In that same span, Chelsea have been up at half thrice while Newcastle has been trailing at the break 4 times out of 5. Expect a repeat of that trend on Sunday.
As for Palmer, he’s done everything short of scoring the last 2 weeks. Quite frankly he should’ve had a goal versus Forest aside from the great back-to-back reaction saves by Matz Sels to keep it tied. The Newcastle defense has been beatable this year and Palmer has more than enough skill and wherewithal to beat the Magpies backline, especially on home turf.
Crystal Palace vs. Tottenham
Bets: Tottenham to Win -118; Brennan Johnson Anytime Goal +290
Somebody in Vegas isn’t watching these teams apparently because these lines don’t look or feel right. That’s okay though, we’ll take advantage of some of the value on the board where we can. The Spurs looked a lot more like the team we expect to see each week last time out and have for the better part of 3-4 weeks. Crystal Palace on the other hand could barely challenge the goal of Nottingham Forest on Monday. If you want to get cute and find larger plus money lines, you could bet Spurs to win by certain margins, though -118 isn’t terrible for a near top-4 team against a relegation side. Over the last 6 meetings, Spurs have won 5 and all but 2 have been by 2+ goals.
Last time out Brennan Johnson’s run of goal scoring came to and end, but only just. He had multiple shots and most were barely off frame. He seems to be the go to threat off the wing and has been getting plenty of touches in the box on crosses, set pieces, or passes from midfield during the run of play. Palace had trouble slowing down play down the right side against Forest and Johnson is more threatening right now than almost anyone else in the league.
West Ham vs. Manchester United
Bets: Manchester United To Win +135; 1st Half/Full Time Draw/Man U +550
The faith in Man U has started to be restored after the last few weeks. The talent is starting to show once again for the Red Devils. It’s not quite doing so in London Stadium for West Ham. Even when Man U has been struggling over the last few years, they’ve routinely been able to beat West Ham having done so 4-of-6 times. Outside of the lost to Spurs, United have looked to be the more threatening side in each of their last 5 games while West Ham have only looked that way in the beatdown of Ipswich.
It has typically taken United a while to get into the games, even the ones they ultimately win. West Ham tend to keep things together early in the game and then fall more and more apart the later the time gets. This trend makes the Draw/Man U line look quite good. What does it mean though? For those not familiar with 1st Half/Full Time bets, we’re betting two outcomes in the same line for a bigger return. In this case we’re betting that the score will be a draw at half and then by full time, Man U will come out the winner. So if, for example, we’re thinking it could be a 2-1 Man U win, we’d want to see it be either 0-0 or 1-1 at half and then finish 2-1 to hit the 1st Half/Full Time bet. Also for what it’s worth, 40% of the last 5 meetings have seen this exact bet hit.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool
Bets: Show Draw of the Week +320 (Score Draw line); Luis Diaz Anytime Goal +410 (.33 u); Mo Salah O 0.5 Ast +450 (.33 u); Bukayo Saka O 0.5 Ast +400 (.33 u)
Matchweek 9 ends with the game of the week and one of the games of the season in Arsenal hosting Liverpool. The winner would likely stay or go top of the table but as you can see, we don’t think it’s a game with a winner. A draw hasn’t happened between Liverpool and Arsenal since December of 2023 but it did happen twice in a row that year. The way both of these teams are playing defense this year — the 2 best defenses in the league — it’s tough to see one side having an advantage over the other. And if you’re thinking why not bet the under in total goals, those lines don’t have value as the under 2.5 total has only hit twice in the last 6 games. Defense aside, the other thing telling us to take draw line is Arsenal being favored at +155 to Liverpool’s +195 line even with the game at The Emirates.
We’ll finish off the week with some intriguing player prop lines in this game in terms of goals and assists. Luis Diaz has been the top scorer for Liverpool this season and with William Saliba out for Arsenal, he should find at least one good scoring chance and that’s enough to take the boosted odds at +410 (without the boost it’s +300 which is still a great line). We’ll toss in a couple of assist bets for the two leading assist men in the game in Saka and Salah both going for at least 4:1 returns. Since we’re betting all three props as kind of a package deal, we’re going to split our typical $10 unit in thirds and sprinkle about $3 and each. It’s still worth it since the returns are nice but with the nicer returns comes higher risk. So we’re splitting the unit to mitigate some of the risk and still have nice profit chances.
