Dallas Mavericks at Atlanta Hawks Pick: Dallas -1 and Under 244
The Mavs are heading into Atlanta after a tough stretch, losing four of their last five games. On the flip side, the Hawks are on a three-game skid, which is particularly challenging without Trae Young due to a concussion. Young is likely to sit out again tonight, along with Clint Capela, and Dallas will miss Kyrie Irving with a thumb injury.
With both teams struggling and key players on the sidelines, my gut feeling is to go with the under for the highest total of the evening. The under has been a safe bet in 7 of the last 8 Hawks games and 4 of the previous 5 Mavericks games.
Despite Dallas being only a -1 away favorite, they’ve shown strength against sub-.500 teams with a league’s second-best 16-5 record.
The odds don’t suggest a blowout, but considering the Hawks’ 11-33 ATS this season and the missing pieces, it’ll be an uphill battle for them to put up points. Expect the Luka Dončić show; the Mavs should come out on top. However, given the Hawks’ struggles and the absentees, taking the under also seems like the wise move for this game.
UPDATE: With the news the Trae Young is going to return from his concussion (albeit on a minutes restriction) I am a bit bullish on the under, but keeping the Mavs -1.
Result: Dallas Cover by +7.5 ✅
