College Basketball Pick: Florida at Kentucky

Edward Raus

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Florida at Kentucky: Kentucky Cover -5.5

This one should be a barn burner. With the total at 170.5, the oddsmakers are predicting a scoring affair. 

Looking at the numbers, the Gators put up the 2nd most shots per game in the nation; however, they are 125th in FG% and 221st in 3PT%. 

Conversely, the Wildcats average the 7th most shots per game in the nation, our 16th in FG% and 3rd in 3PT%. Advantage, Wildcats.

On top of this, Kentucky is 4th in points per game, and the Florida defense is 306th. 

The ATS trends do not help the Gators either; they are 2-8 in their last ten road games and 0-5 in their previous five at Kentucky. Again, flip that around. The Wildcats are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.

The spread is a little too low for me, and I feel comfortable giving Kentucky the -5.5, which could easily be a 10-point victory against a lousy road team.

Result: Florida Cover +10.5 ❌