Premier League Matchweek 4: Best Bets & Predictions

Matt Selz

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Premier League is back! After the first international break of the season, EPL Matchweek 4 kicks off Saturday morning. Every team is on the docket which gives us plenty of chances to bet the games. If you’re new to betting the Premier League there are plenty of ways to bet each game to keep things exciting. From betting outright winners to draw bets to player props. It’s all here. There are some interesting matchups for betting in Premier League Matchweek 4 from Southampton-Manchester United to the North London Derby of Tottenham-Arsenal. We’ll give out at least a bet for each of the 10 Matchweek 4 games to keep your whole weekend exciting.

 

Southampton — Manchester United

Bets: Southampton To Win +350 (FanDuel), Under 2.5 Goals +131 (FanDuel)

We’re kicking the weekend off with some spice in this one. While Southampton has been widely picked as a relegation candidate, they’ve not been playing like it. On the other hand, Man U is off to another rough start results- and stats-wise. Southampton rank 2nd in the league in touches and passes and tied for 7th in shots. Add in Man U being down several key players this week and being unable to score even when fully healthy; things are setting up for the first really surprising upset of the EPL season. As for the under on the goal total these teams have combined for 3 total goals all year. Expecting 3 goals in this one alone is unlikely so we’ll take the plus money on under 2.5 total goals.

 

Brighton — Ipswich

Bets: Half Time/Full Time: Brighton/Brighton +100 (Bet365), Brighton to Win By 2 Goals +333 (Bet365)

Ipswich has put up some good showings in tight games so far, but Brighton is on a heck of a roll right now. This won’t be a blow out but rather a solid, convincing win for Brighton. The Seagulls are 6th in the PL in shots per game (15.3) and tied for 3rd in goals (6). Meanwhile Ipswich give up nearly 14 shots a game and have conceded 2.33 goals a game. This sets up for the varied attack of Brighton and their 31-year-old Head Coach to win this one 2-0 or 3-1. To win the Half Time/Full Time bet we’d need Brighton to be up at half and then hold on to win for the final score. Ipswich has allowed 4 first half goals in 3 games so far. A hedge bet could be draw/Brighton for +320 if you think it goes to half 0-0 but Brighton wins ultimately.

 

Crystal Palace — Leicester City

Bet: Eberechi Eze Anytime Goal Scorer +230 (FanDuel)

Eze is coming off of back-to-back 10+ goal seasons while taking between 20-29 shots on target. This year he’s already put 5 shots on frame but only has one goal, coming in the last game. Over the last 2 seasons, Eze’s goals have come in chunks. In 2023/24 9 of his 11 goals came in the last 14 games. In 2022/23, 6 of his 10 games came in a 7-game span. Crystal Palace is starting to get into form and Eze is a volume shooter facing a team allowing 1.66 goal a game. There’s nice value here.

 

Fulham — West Ham United

Bets: Edward Raus Draw of the Week +250 (DraftKings), Under 2.5 Goals +113 (FanDuel)

These two teams haMatve had a similar start to the year and sit together in the table. The recent games between them, outside of the 5-0 shellacking last year, have been tightly fought affairs. Fulham have been far better at Craven Cottage than on the road but these two teams haven’t been separated by much in their last 8 meetings. Expect this game to be a contested 1-1 draw when all is said and done and by the way, the under 2.5 total has hit 6 of the last 8 games between these 2 squads.

 

Liverpool — Nottingham Forest

Bet: Mohammed Salah Over 0.5 Assists +175 (Bet365)

Salah is the man the Liverpool attack plays through in open play. Since the start of last year Salah ranks 3rd in the Premier League in assists with 13. He’s posted 1 a game so far in 2024/25  and given how Arne Slot likes to play offense with Liverpool, this run may not slow down anytime soon. Salah crossing the ball to a waiting Luis Diaz has all the hallmarks of how Liverpool will score at least one goal against Forest, a team he’s had multiple goal contributions against previously.

 

Manchester City — Brentford

Bet: Under 3.5 Goals -105 (Bet365)

This game, along with the Liverpool-Forest game, is one of the tougher games to find bets for. That’s mainly because there isn’t a ton of value on the board. That being said, this prop has some nice value. While City hasn’t lost a league game at home in regulation in nearly 2 years, Brentford has caused them more trouble than expected in the last few meetings. In 4-of-the-last-5 meetings, the under on this bet has hit comfortably. Man City will be pacing themselves with so many games on the schedule and Brentford’s defense can keep this close, in the neighborhood of a 2-1 win.

 

Aston Villa — Everton

Bets: Aston Villa To Win -195 (BetRivers), Ollie Watkins Anytime Goal Scorer +125 (BetMGM)

It’s clear that these two teams have been on alternate paths this season. Everton is already battling relegation talk and have been outscored by 8 goals in 3 games. Villa was a top-4 side last year and are competing for that this year. This is a mismatch on paper and should be on the field on Saturday. It’s likely to be a win in the 3-0 range with at least one of those coming from the talented young striker.

 

Bournemouth — Chelsea

Bets: Matt Selz Draw of the Week +290 (DraftKings), Over 3.5 Goals +126 (FanDuel)

Perhaps the most under-the-radar high-scoring game on the slate, the Cherries and Blues are set for a heck of a match. Chelsea is unbeaten in the lsat 5 games versus Bournemouth but for their part Bournemouth is unbeaten in 7-of-their-last-8 home league games. So we have the immovable force versus the unstoppable object. But, we also have a ton of goals in those matchups. The over on this total has hit half the time in their last 6 matchups and now with the Maresca system in place at Chelsea there are a lot of goals in the back-and-forth games they play.

 

Tottenham — Arsenal

Bet: Pedro Porro Anytime Goal Scorer +1000 (FanDuel)

Rivalry games are always hard to pick one way or the other but especially the North London Derby. In normal circumstances this has been a run of wins for Arsenal of late, however with key players injured and/or suspended for the Gunners and Dominic Solanke potentially out for Tottenham, it’s unclear on winner bets, so we’re avoiding them. Instead we’re going to take a bit of a long shot player prop in Porro being an anytime goal scorer at 10-1. Tottenham love to use Porro just outside the box in the run of play to take shots and he’s a key target on corners as well. He’s already scored one goal this season from a corner and with key players out for Arsenal, the normally stout set piece defense may not be as stout.

 

Wolves — Newcastle

Bets: Newcastle To Win +110 (DraftKings), Under 2.5 Goals +150

In a bit of a let down of a game to end the week, we have a momentum building Newcastle facing a struggling Wolverhampton side. Newcastle by most accounts is a top-6 side this year who is rounding into form and getting a key player back from suspension, meanwhile Wolves finally got a point last game out, their 3rd game. Wolves have already conceded 9 goals so far compared to just 2 conceded for Newcastle who have been battle tested in close games already. History is on the side of Newcastle too with no losses to Wolves in the past 5 meetings. While there have typically been a good amount of goals in these fixtures, this Newcastle team is still getting their feet wet with scoring and thus a 2-0 scoring feels appropriate.