George Kittle: Over 20.5 Longest Reception
Over his last 12 games, he’s made long receptions of 28, 32, 18, 58, 35, 44, 32, 11, 24, 66, 34, and 28 yards. That’s a solid track record of hitting the Over on his reception prop, going 10 out of 12 times. Reflecting on those games, Kittle, who leads all TEs in deep targets per game, has hit the 30-yard mark in seven games, the 40-yard mark three times, and the 50-yard mark twice.
Brandon Aiyuk: Over 59.5 Receiving Yards
I am expecting a big Aiyuk game here. The Chiefs will be putting extra effort into stopping McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, opening the door for Aiyuk to have some space in the middle of the field. It opened at 65.5 and has dropped to 59.5, making it a great value that I am taking advantage of. I am generally over on Aiyuk’s props, including 4.5 receptions and 24.5 longest reception.
George Kittle & Travis Kelce Anytime TD: Parlay +429
I will throw half a unit on this anytime TD parlay for the star TEs in this game. With both teams focusing on stopping the run, which both teams will try to establish from the get-go, look for Kelce and Kittle to be involved in some red-zone play action packages to give them some separation and space in the endzone. I can see this hitting in the first half.
Elijah Mitchell: Over 3.5 Rushing Yards
Did I mention that both teams will try and establish the run early? Kyle Shannahan is one of the best offensive minds in football and will try to call plays that will confuse the Kansas City defensive scheme. This includes 2-back sets with Mitchell and McCaffrey. I can see McCaffrey being motioned out wide with a few carries going to Mitchell’s way in this one. If the defense is spread out trying to cover Aiyuk, Kittle, Deebo, and McCaffrey, a quick draw handoff to Mitchell should get over this number in one carry. He had 7 yards against Detroit on similar plays.
Rashee Rice: Under 65.5 Receiving Yards
The 49ers are #1 in the league against screen and gimmick plays at the line of scrimmage. Rice is the best in the NFL in YAC (Yards after the catch). That has been his schtick since college at SMU. The 49ers will not allow Rice to get loose in the open field, limiting his YAC and, ultimately, his yards. I think 55.5 should be about right, so taking advantage of this high total against a dominiate defense against his game style.
The 49ers Will Win Super Bowl 58 and Cover -1.5
I have been going back and forth on this for two weeks. But after all my research, I have decided on the Niners. I know, “You can’t bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs.” I get it. Both teams are evenly matched, with great defense and two of the best playcallers in the NFL. So I settled on this: the 49ers have the better players on offense. I expect both teams to try to establish the run and tempo early, but this feels like a last-minute field goal-to-win-it type of game. I am giving the edge to the 49ers with the better players on offense and the revenge narrative; I am looking at you, George Kittle. Look for a Jake Moody field goal as time expires for a 49ers win.
The Total of Super Bowl 58 will go Under 47.5
The Under from these two teams is 3-2 in the postseason. With the likelihood of establishing the run on both sides, the clock will tick faster in this one. Both defenses are excellent, and this game should be a chess match on the field, not a shootout. Plus, the under has hit 4 out of the last 5 Big Games.
