Coming off an international break, we’ve got a loaded Matchweek 8 for the Premier League. There might not be the best games throughout, but for betting, there are some very interesting fixtures. We’re coming off a great week in Matchweek 7 in terms of profit (+$80) and we’re looking to double down on that for this three-day Matchweek.
As always we’ll breakdown the bets by fixture and if you want some additional thoughts on the games, take a listen to the Keepin’ It EPL podcast with Edward Raus and I.
Without further ado, let’s start diving into these tasty lines that kickoff at 7:30 am ET Saturday morning!
Tottenham v. West Ham United
Bets: Jarrod Bowen To Score or Assist +165; Brennan Johnson To Score or Assist +100; Under 3.5 Goals -125; Over 3.5 Goals +102
We’re starting things off with a couple of player props and a totals hedge. Both Bowen and Johnson have been big parts of the early season scoring efforts for their respective teams. They both tend to effect the game in the same ways as well. They’ll either streak down the right side with the ball at their feet and send it on goal or they’ll look for the cross to someone in the box to put it on frame. Bowen also has the added duty of taking the set pieces for the Hammers which adds to the assist upside. Bowen and Johnson both have 4 goal contributions in 7 games thus far.
As far as the game total, we were split on this on the pod. About half of the last 10 combined games Spurs and West Ham have played have had 4 or more goals in them. In fact, when you add up the goals for and goals against for both teams it’s 43 which is more than 6 goals a game allowed and scored. That being said, 4 of the last 6 fixtures between them have seen 3 or fewer goals scored. So we’re hedging and splitting our standard $10 unit on these totals with $5 each on the over and under 3.5 total.
Fulham v. Aston Villa
Bets: Aston Villa To Win +190; Ollie Watkins To Score Anytime Goal +180; Raul Jimenez To Score Anytime Goal +265
Quite simply Villa is the better team. While they’re close in the Premier League table, Villa has put up the same amount of points on the road as home. That should make them a threat to go to Craven Cottage and pull off the win. It’s not only this year though that we’re looking at. Villa has won 5-of-6 against Fulham over the last 3 seasons. Getting nearly 2-1 return on this line is too good to pass up.
If Villa is going to win, Watkins is going to have a hand in it. He’s their best goal scorer with 4 goals in 7 games this year. Watkins ranks 10th in goals per 90 minutes in the Premier League so far this season at .67. On Fulham’s side, their best scorer has been a resurgent Raul Jimenez who ranks 6th in goals per 90 minutes. His 3 goals leads Fulham even though he’s only started 4 of 7 games. If Jimenez was starting more frequently, this line wouldn’t be +265 and instead would be closer to Watkins line.
Ipswich Town v. Everton
Bets: Ipswich Town To Win +145; Under 2.5 Goals +100
It’s the battle of the near-relegation sides in Ipswich. With a combined record of 1-6-7 it’s not a game that yells blowout. We don’t need a blowout though, just for the Tractor Boys to land their first win of the season against a key relegation rival. The smothering defense of Ipswich, West Ham game aside, has kept some top half teams at bay this season while that’s the part that’s let Everton down this season. Without a ton of goal scoring options in this game, expect a 1-0 win for Ipswich with an outside chance at 2-0.
Newcastle v. Brighton
Bets: Edward Raus Draw of the Week +290; Under 2.5 Goals +153
These two have been pretty evenly matched over the last few seasons. Newcastle has 2 wins to Brighton’s 1 but there are 2 draws in there too. However, both teams have been more in draw form over the last few PL games than not with both drawing 2 of their last 3. It’s not like they were all elite teams they drew either with Man City, Ipswich, Nottingham Forest, and Everton being the draws. This kind of even matchup and form screams draw for Raus and the betting lines suggest that too as the money line tells you there’s no clear winner pick.
The total follows a trend this week we’re liking, the under. Coming out of an international break, Brighton losing the momentum of the wild second half against Tottenham, and a lack of clear goal scorers feed this. The defense for Newcastle is allowing just 1 goal a game over the last 6 while they’re also only scoring 1 a game. That makes us believe we’re looking at a 1-1 draw on Saturday morning.
Manchester United v. Brentford
Bets: Matt Selz Draw of the Week +330
Just a lone bet on this game. The last 3 games between these two have been tightly contested and resulted in a draw last meeting. Man U has also drawn 4 of their last 5 games across all competitions while Brentord has only drawn once. So if Brentford has been getting results, why go with the draw? The game script falls into Man U’s hands with limited goals being scored and counter attacking chances for Man U to equalize. It’s been a struggle in front of net for United this season with just 5 goals scored, however, their defense is stepping up and only allowing 8 goals. For their part, Brentford has allowed 12 on the year. The game script is telling us it’ll be another closely contested game with a few chances to score and resulting in a 0-0 or 1-1 draw.
Southampton v. Leicester City
Bets: Southampton To Win +135
This is arguably a shorter line than we might expect to see favoring a team who’s yet to win this year. The stats explain this though. We’ve been talking for a few weeks now about how unlucky Southampton has been in terms of not winning or scoring more. The stats still bare out that Southampton should be scoring more based on possession, shots on target, and passes. Leicester has taken on a gritty, counter attacking type team that is Steve Cooper’s style and that should give plenty of chances for Southampton to get off the schneid and into the win column in front of their home crowd.
Bournemouth v. Arsenal
Bets: Arsenal To Win -145; Over 2.5 Goals -130
To put it quite simply, Bournemouth has been punching above their weight to start the Premier League season. This is a reality check game for the Cherries. In the last 5 games H2H, Bournemouth has managed just 3 total goals and have lost every game. Arsenal have one of the best defenses in the Premier League with just 6 goals allowed and keep in mind they nearly beat Man City down a man on the road for a half. The only reason this isn’t more in favor of Arsenal is because it’s at Vitality Stadium and not The Emirates.
Now, we don’t expect a clean sheet for Arsenal but a 2-1 win or a 3-1 win is quite likely. Bournemouth is a quality goal scoring team and Arsenal did allow Southampton to put up 2 goals last game out. To bolster the over 2.5 goal argument, 5 of the last 6 meetings between these two have had at least 3 goals if them.
Wolverhampton v. Manchester City
Bets: Over 3.5 Goals +115; Haaland 2 or More Goals +260
A simple tale of one of the best teams in the league facing the worst team in the league who’s not stopping anyone from scoring. Having already allowed a league-high 21 goals in 7 games, Wolves now get a matchup against the best goal scorer in the league in Erling Haaland. In just 7 games this year for Man City, Haaland has scored 2 or more goals thrice and he’s averaging 1.43 goals per 90. Wolverhampton can’t stop anyone this year and has already allowed 5 or more goals in a game twice. One last note here, Haaland has 2 hat tricks in the last 3 games versus Wolves with 7 goals.
Liverpool v. Chelsea
Bets: Show Draw of the Week +340; Cole Palmer To Score or Assist +175
It was hard for us to get a read on this game given the form both teams are in right now. While it’s true that Liverpool has been very hard to score against, allowing just 2 goals on the year. Chelsea is the second-highest scoring team on the year just one goal back of Man City. So it’s your typical, immovable object meets unstoppable force in the game of the week for Matchweek 8. The other thing that makes this game very interesting for a draw is that while the coaches have changed, and some of the tactics have changed, the players haven’t. Those players have produced a draw 4-of-the-last-5 matchups between these teams.
Palmer getting either a goal or assist at 1.75-1 is just silly frankly. Yes, Liverpool’s defense is great, however, Palmer leads the Premier League in Goals+Assists per 90 minutes at 1.66 so far this year. And to be fair to Liverpool’s stats, they’ve yet to face a team who’s tallied 10 goals this year outside of Brentford while playing 4-of-the-bottom-5 teams in Goals For. Even if Chelsea only score 1 goal, it’s likely that Palmer will have a hand in it.
Nottingham Forest v. Crystal Palace
Bets: Nottingham Forest To Win +138; Under 2.5 Goals -138; Chris Wood Anytime Goal +225
Monday Night Football! Sure it might not be as sexy as the Monday Night Football matchups we’re used to, but it is an interesting fixture to bet. Forest has looked to City Ground to be a fortress for them in the Premier League and it mostly has been. Since Nottingham Forest returned the Premier League in 2022, they’ve yet to lose to Palace in any of the 4 games. When you add to that that Crystal Palace has just 1 point away from home this year and isn’t playing great overall, it’s hard to see Palace coming into City Ground and nabbing a win.
Neither team is really allowing a lot of goals this year with just 16 allowed between the two. That works out to 1.14 allowed per game over the 14 combined league contests. As rough as it’s been to watch Palace try and score with just 5 goals on the year, Forest isn’t much better with 7 finding the back of the net. All of this leads to the likelihood of a low-scoring tight game.
When Forest has scored this year, it’s generally come from the head or foot of Chris Wood. He ranks 12th in the league in goals per 90 at .65 and is by far and away the best option on Forest. Whether it’s been from set pieces or run of play, Wood has been putting his skills to good use thus far.
